How Buying at 6.3% Beats Waiting for 5.5%

The Math Most Buyers Never See

A lot of buyers are sitting on the sidelines right now, waiting for mortgage rates to drop to a more comfortable number. The most common target I hear is 5.5%. On the surface, that logic feels reasonable. Lower rate equals lower payment, right?

Not exactly.

When you actually run the numbers - and factor in what happens to prices and competition when rates fall - waiting often costs far more than buyers expect.

Let’s walk through a simple example.

The Payment Comparison Most Headlines Ignore

Buying today
6.3% interest rate
$500,000 purchase price
20% down payment
Estimated monthly payment: ~$2,475

Waiting 12 months
5.5% interest rate
$520,000 purchase price
Estimated monthly payment: ~$2,360

At first glance, waiting looks like a win. You save about $105 per month.

But here’s the part most people stop calculating.

You paid $20,000 more for the home.

At a $105 monthly savings, it takes well over 15 years just to break even on the higher purchase price — assuming nothing else changes. No refinancing, no opportunity cost, no lost equity growth.

That’s the tradeoff buyers rarely see spelled out.

What’s Actually Happening in the Denver Market Right Now

While many buyers are waiting, the current market is quietly offering something far more valuable than a slightly lower rate.

Right now in Denver:

• Mortgage rates around 6.3%, near the lowest levels we’ve seen in several years

• Inventory up roughly 27% year over year

• About 20% of listings experienced price reductions last month

• Days on market up approximately 40% year over year

That combination matters.

More inventory and longer days on market give buyers leverage. And leverage shows up in very real ways: negotiated price reductions, seller credits, inspection repairs, and flexible terms that simply don’t exist in a hyper-competitive environment.

What Happens When Rates Hit 5.5%

When rates drop meaningfully, buyer behavior changes fast.

Buyers who have been waiting jump back in. Inventory tightens. Competition returns. Multiple-offer situations become common again, and pricing firms up quickly. The leverage buyers enjoy today tends to disappear almost overnight.

At that point, even with a lower rate, many buyers find themselves paying more for the home and giving up favorable terms just to win the deal.

The Question Buyers Should Actually Be Asking

The real question isn’t, “What’s the rate?”

It’s this:
Can you afford the monthly payment and negotiate from a position of strength?

Right now, many buyers can do both.

You can buy a home at a payment that works for your budget while also controlling price, inspections, and concessions. That combination is rare, and it doesn’t usually last once market sentiment shifts.

Timing the Market vs. Building Wealth

Trying to time the perfect interest rate often means giving up the very leverage that creates a good deal. Wealth is built by buying well, not by chasing headlines.

The strongest opportunities tend to appear when fewer people are paying attention - not when everyone rushes back in at once.

Buying when you can afford the payment and negotiate confidently puts you in control of the terms. And control, more than rate alone, is what makes a purchase financially sound over the long term.

If you’re thinking about buying and want to understand what today’s numbers actually mean for your situation, not just in theory but in real dollars, I can help. I work with buyers to evaluate timing, pricing, and leverage based on their goals, budget, and long-term strategy, not headlines or guesswork. Whether that means buying now or waiting with intention, the right decision starts with clear math and honest guidance. If you’d like to talk through your options and run the numbers specific to you, reach out today.